The F1 driver market in 2024 has been everything but straightforward. It all started when Lewis Hamilton announced his shocking departure from Mercedes. He was leaving a team that had been with him from the start of his career. All of his 7 World Championships came with Mercedes power. He left the Stuttgart team to join the team in Maranello. Statistically, the most successful driver on the grid was on his way to the most successful team on the grid.
Embed from Getty ImagesWith Carlos Sainz out of a seat, he became the hottest prospect on the driver market. Every team that had a seat available wanted to get a Spaniard in it. He had proved he was a good midfield driver during his Renault/McLaren days, and when he got a competitive Ferrari, he showed he had it in him to fight for wins too.
Carlos Sainz: The Bottleneck
Embed from Getty ImagesCarlos Sainz is a very crucial driver to understand and put together the driver market for 2025. His single move to a team determines the placement of all other drivers. Williams, Audi (currently Stake Sauber), and Alpine are showing interest in the Spaniard. It’s up to Sainz to decide where he wants to drive next year. In an ideal scenario, Sainz would’ve liked to remain in a top team, either with Red Bull or Mercedes. But with Red Bull confirming Perez alongside Max and Mercedes in no hurry to make their decision, Sainz would have to settle for a lower-table team.
Audi F1 Project
Embed from Getty ImagesAudi has been clear from the start, that they want Carlos Sainz in the team. The team earlier signed Nico Hulkenberg who was a no-brainer, a German driver in a German team. Sainz has been offered a very lucrative deal to join the project. However, Sainz is interested more in performance than money. Audi which is currently Sauber sits at the bottom of the Constructor Standings. With Audi coming in 2026, the team would still take a few years to move up to the top half of the field. So while monetarily the deal sounds good, on the performance side it’s not so much. For Audi, the other option would be Esteban Ocon, who left Alpine and is considered a strong midfield driver. Another option would be to re-sign Valterri Bottas who is already at the team and is a former race winner with another German team on the grid.
Alpine’s second seat.
Ever since Flavio Briatore joined the Enstone team, the rumours of Alpine wanting Sainz have picked up the pace. Alpine wants to move up the field quickly and is making its decisions to align them on this path. Bringing Briatore back into the team as an executive advisor was part of it. Signing Carlos Sainz would be a statement of intent from the team. They have already confirmed Gasly on a multi-year deal, bringing some consistency in their future. On the second seat, should Sainz decide not to partner up with Gasly the other option would be Jack Doohan.
Embed from Getty ImagesThe Alpine Academy driver who finished 3rd in Formula 2 last year is currently the team’s reserve driver. Promoting him to the team will also show the team’s confidence in their academy and junior drivers. Another option would be to bring the ex-Alpine Academy driver Zhou into the team. The Chinese driver will most probably end up without a seat next season with Audi (Sauber) showing no interest in him. Alpine can also promote other Academy drivers, Victor Martins or Kush Maini, should either one of them have a stellar Formula 2 campaign in the remainder of the year.
Williams Rebuild
Williams under James Vowles are on their way to the front. The team has shown promise and an uptick in form compared to their previous years. Recently the team announced the hiring of top technical talent from around the grid. Carlos Sainz is the driver that the team wants to lead its rebuilding. Sainz is also said to be inclined more towards Williams out of all his offers. Vowles’s leadership and a promising Mercedes engine in 2026 are what attract the Spaniard to the team.
Embed from Getty ImagesWilliams also has Bottas as their backup plan in case Sainz doesn’t join them. The Finn started his career with Williams and would come to a full circle should he end up there. Another option could be to bring Mercedes junior Kimi Antonelli to the team. But with the Italian all but confirmed for Mercedes, this outcome could be an unlikely one.
VCARB’s Dilemma
VCARB or RB was quick to extend Yuki Tsunoda’s contract with the team. It’s the other seat they have a dilemma about. Daniel Ricciardo needs no introduction, and it is safe to say he brings in wealth of experience and knowledge to the team. However, his performances are not meeting the standards he has set for himself, something he has also said multiple times. RB is a junior team, on the grid to train young drivers before they step up to Red Bull Racing. In that sense, the team might think about promoting Liam Lawson.
Embed from Getty ImagesThe Kiwi turned out for the team last year during Ricciardo’s injury phase and impressed everyone. Should RB promote Lawson, that would mean Ricciardo would be available on the driver market. If you’re a team that’s looking for a driver with experience and a wealth of knowledge, it’s a no-brainer for you to sign Ricciardo. Teams like Audi or Williams should try and get the Australian’s signature should he be dropped by RB.
Junior drivers set for promotions
Oliver Bearman and Andrea Kimi Antonelli who are currently teammates at Prema in Formula 2 are all but confirmed to get their Formula 1 call-ups. Oliver Bearman who subbed at the last minute for Carlos Sainz is vouched to get a seat at Haas for next year. The Brit impressed everyone on his Formula 1 debut for Ferrari, scoring 6 points. He was also voted the “Driver of the Day” by the fans.
Embed from Getty ImagesBearman’s current teammate might end up partnering George Russell at Mercedes. The Italian already has enough super license points to his name. Just 17 years of age, he has won 4 Feeder Series titles in the last 2 years. He was also promoted to Formula 2 after just one year in the Formula Regional European Championship, where he won the title. Mercedes would look to bring Kimi into the team to secure their future. With Lewis Hamilton out of the team, George Russell automatically takes the leadership role within the team. Kimi is someone they can bring into the team in 2025 and prepare him for the future. Bringing someone like Sainz could hamper the team dynamics as neither Russell nor Sainz would settle to be the ‘Second Driver’. The team has learned its lessons from 2016 and would want to have a compatible driver pairing at their helm.
Embed from Getty ImagesMercedes also has another out-of-the-box option for their vacant seat, signing Max from Red Bull. It is no secret that Red Bull is having internal conflicts within the team. From Horner’s scandal at the start of the year to Newey leaving the team more recently, the Austrian team might be losing its stability. Mercedes would do anything to bring Max into the team. Jos Verstappen has also been very vocal about not being a fan of Horner lately. His most recent comments came today calling Horner “childish”.
Embed from Getty ImagesMax has said that he is happy where he is now. Red Bull offers him the chance to fight for championships. Max himself too is very comfortable with how the car behaves and can drive it according to his preference. In the recent few races, it is Max who has won the races from others rather than the car who has won it for him. So it’s safe to say that Max might not leave Red Bull for a much inferior Mercedes, but in the silly world of F1, you just never know.
