Canadian GP 2024 Preview: Can Red Bull Rebound Against Surging Ferrari and McLaren?

Red Bull, Ferrari, and McLaren have each claimed a victory in the past three races, leading to a captivating championship battle. Despite Red Bull and Max Verstappen’s early-season lead, Charles Leclerc’s win at his home race in Monaco has narrowed the gap, making every race a must-watch for fans.

Know The Circuit

Circuit layout (Image credits Formula Media)

The Circuit Gilles Villeneuve is a 4.361 km motor racing track situated on Notre Dame Island in Montreal. Known for its fast and low-downforce layout, the circuit is a favourite among drivers, despite the close barriers that have ensnared even the most experienced racers. The track features a series of heavy-braking chicanes and the renowned hairpin, challenging the brakes extensively. However, once out of the corners, the track transitions into a quick and flowing course.

One of the most iconic segments of the circuit is the Wall of Champions, located at the exit of the final chicane before the start/finish straight. Turns one and two, collectively forming an ‘S’ shape when viewed from above, are referred to as the Senna ‘S’. Another notable feature is the high-speed Pont de la Concorde corner (Turn 8), a ‘quick kink’ following the bridge underpass, leading into Turn 9 and the subsequent dash to the Hairpin curve.

The stop-start nature, with its heavy-braking chicanes and hairpin, would test the braking systems rigorously. Drivers would need to skillfully manage their brakes to avoid overheating while maintaining speed through the flowing sections. The quick kinks and fast corners demand impeccable aerodynamic balance and control.

Struggle for RedBull and Championship Battle

A true Red Bull weakness was brought to light 2 weeks ago during the Monaco GP where the car severely suffered from kerbs and uneven surfaces resulting in a P6 for Verstappen in both qualifying and race. As if this wasn’t enough setback, Checo was involved in a crash during the first lap of the race followed by a DNF and a red flag.

This was the second DNF for RedBull this season, earlier Verstappen also suffered one in Australia. Combined, this has truly threatened the position of team and driver in the constructors and driver championship tables respectively.

After the previous race weekend, Charles Leclerc has narrowed the gap down to 31 points which is still more than one race win but also not an unrealistic difference. Whereas the things are constructors are even more confined where Ferrari is behind RedBull by a mere gap of 24 points which could easily be overtaken this weekend.

The crash at Monaco has not only affected the positions but also would take away a big chunk from their development budget that would be required to cover the damage cost. Adding to this RedBull has already confirmed a grid penalty as they potentially had to replace the gearbox and PU.

Helmut Marko wrote on Speedweek that mid-season development at Milton Keynes will be compromised:

“Sergio Pérez had a costly crash on the first lap, which cost us between two and three million euros.

“This is of course a serious disadvantage due to the budget cap, as this kind of damage affects the development budget.”

The RB20 struggles with riding kerbs, a weakness that has become evident in a more competitive field. Canada’s circuit features numerous kerbs, and this combined with Red Bull’s significant damage expenses puts the Milton Keynes team at a disadvantage.

Speaking to the media, Verstappen has admitted it will not be an easy weekend:

“We have to wait and see, [there is a] new surface as well. I think that might always give you some surprises,” racingnews365 quotes him as saying.

“But it’s probably also not going to be our strongest weekend because of that. But probably a little bit better than here [in Monaco].”

Upgrades for Ferrari and Mclaren

“Let’s not draw too many conclusions from this weekend,” were the words of Fred Vasseur last race weekend. Canada is more of a “normal” circuit in contrast with Monaco but what the previous race highlighted was that Ferrari’s work in 676 projects is finally bearing fruit. The next round in Canada, therefore, is crucial to see more definitively if the SF-24 has improved aerodynamic load and efficiency.

Recently, Frédéric Vasseur spoke about a different approach his team had this season, focusing more on the race.

“This was the result of analysis from last season. In Qualifying, we were competitive. But then, on Sunday, we lost too many points. And that’s why we decided on this different approach this year. ”

It’s not just the setup that matters, but the team’s preparation for the entire weekend. They have slightly reduced the SF-24’s qualifying pace, but the results have justified the team’s strategy. At the same time, the team won’t be introducing any new upgrades this weekend followed by a rear wing configuration used at the start of the year.

McLaren brought their upgrades 3 race weekends ago and since then has performed in all three weekends which included a win in Miami and a podium in Monaco and Imola. According to team principal Andrea Stella, this consistency is beyond what the engineers at Woking anticipated. Even though the car now feels more rounded off the weakness of the team still lies in slow turns.

“It seems that the picture of our competitiveness is finally starting to change, where slow speed no longer appears as a clear weakness.

“A situation that we have been able to change thanks to developments. I think it’s positive news.” – Andrea Stella

Are Mercedes Going in the Right Direction?

This is going to be an interesting weekend for the German team which has finally understood the car. Although Monte Carlo was a bittersweet weekend for the team they came close with McLaren and Ferrari in qualifying pace and also out-qualified Verstappen.

Despite this mixed bag of conclusions, Toto Wolff left the eighth round of the season with a positive outlook:

“Overall, we’ve had a positive weekend. We were much closer than we have been in Qualifying so far this year and showed good pace throughout the race,” he explained.

“The trajectory is going in the right direction. We’ve understood where we need to improve the balance car, and we’re bringing updates to enhance that.

Last time out in Monte Carlo, Lewis Hamilton said that teammate George Russell had an upgrade that was not yet available to him.

Toto Wolff has made clear that both drivers will have the latest version of the W15 in Canada:

“Both drivers will have the new front wing, and there will be some other development items for this event.

“The new front wing offered a small lap-time gain around the tight streets of the principality and should offer greater benefit on upcoming circuits.

Aston Martin Chaos

Dan Fallows, Aston Martin’s technical director since 2021, is undeniably under immense pressure due to the concerning development of the team since 2023. The highly anticipated Imola upgrades showed promising results in the wind tunnel, but the actual on-track improvements were minimal. The car became unstable, occasionally undrivable, with a much narrower operating window than expected.

This situation has led Aston Martin to extend an offer to Ferrari’s current Technical Director, Enrico Cardile. Additionally, Lawrence Stroll remains determined to secure Adrian Newey’s expertise. Despite their initial contract in Saudi Arabia, Aston Martin’s efforts to recruit Newey have intensified, aiming to bring him on board after his tenure at Red Bull ends in 2025.

Drivers Market Turmoil

Ocon’s recent decision to leave Alpine by the end of this year has certainly created multiple shifts in the driver’s market. The incident which occurred during Ocon and Gasly during last race weekend certainly will be a highlight for the team thinking of bringing him on board. Sources say one of the top contends for that Alpine seat would be Jack Doohan who is said to be driving the car in FP1 of Canadian weekend.

Along with this the announcement of Checo renewing this contract for 2 more seasons has occurred as terrible news for Sainz as he was hoping to get that RedBull seat. This leaves him with Willaims, Sauber and Audi as potential options.

Yuki Tsunoda, a standout performer in F1 this year with notable speed and consistency, is drawing significant interest in the driver market. However, his chances of a promotion at Red Bull are slim, as team principal Christian Horner doesn’t consider him Red Bull material, a view that has gained more weight this year due to Horner’s increased influence over driver choices compared to Helmut Marko.

While Alpine is struggling, Haas lacks the resources, and Williams, despite its long-term potential, isn’t currently performing well, Tsunoda still has alternative opportunities. Other drivers like Carlos Sainz and Esteban Ocon are also available. Only time will reveal how the market evolves.